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2012: The year in pictures


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STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Julian Zelizer: 2012 was a year of bitter domestic battles, turbulence overseas

  • He says the weakness of GOP, renewed strength of liberalism were apparent

  • Zelizer says the year also highlighted the influence of new immigrants in America

  • Zelizer: Year ended with a tragic reminder about need to act on gun control




Editor's note: Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author of "Jimmy Carter" and of the new book "Governing America."


(CNN) -- 2012 has been a tumultuous year in American politics. With the presidential election capping off the year, Americans have witnessed a series of bitter domestic battles and turbulent events overseas. As the year closes out, it is worth thinking about some of the most important lessons that politicians and voters can learn from this year as they prepare for 2013.


Here are six:


The Republican brand name is in trouble: The GOP took a drubbing in 2012. To be sure, Mitt Romney ran a problematic campaign. His inability to connect with voters and a number of embarrassing gaffes hurt the chances for Republicans to succeed.



Julian Zelizer

Julian Zelizer



Just as important to the outcome was the party that Romney represented. Voters are not happy with the GOP. Public approval for the party has been extremely low. Congressional Republicans have helped to bring down the party name with their inability to compromise.


Recent polls show that if the nation goes off the fiscal cliff, the Republicans would be blamed. According to a survey by NBC and the Wall Street Journal, 65 percent of people asked for a short word or phrase to describe the GOP came up with something negative. The Republican Party was also the lowest-rated political institution.



The exit polls in November showed that the GOP is out of step with the electorate on a number of big issues, including immigration and gay marriage. If Republicans don't undertake some serious reforms and offer fresh voices, all the new messaging in the world won't help them as the competition starts for 2016.


Opinion: Madness in the air in Washington


America has grown more liberal on cultural and social issues: The election results confirmed what polls have been showing for some time. If the 1960s was a battle over conservative "traditional family values" and liberal ideals of social relations, liberals eventually won. Throughout the year, polls showed, for example, that the public was becoming more tolerant of gay marriage and civil unions. Americans support the view that gay sex should be legal by a margin of 2-1, compared to 1977 when the public was split.


In the election, same-sex marriage was approved in three states, voters in Wisconsin sent to office the first openly gay senator, and two states approved of referendums to legalize the recreational use of marijuana. Americans are accepting of social diversity, and expect that the pluralism of the electorate will be reflected by the composition of elected officials in Washington.


While there are some conservative voices who lament these changes and warn of a nation that is veering toward Sodom, a majority are more than comfortable that some of the taboos and social restrictions of earlier eras are fading and that we live in a nation which is more tolerant than ever before. These social and cultural changes will certainly raise more questions about restrictive practices and policies that remain in place while creating pressure for new kinds of leaders who are responsive to these changes.


The Middle East remains a tinderbox: In the years that followed Barack Obama's election, there was some hope that the Middle East could become a calmer region. When revolutions brought down some of the most notorious dictators in the region, many Americans cheered as the fervor for democracy seemed to be riding high.








But events in 2012 threw some cold water on those hopes. The Muslim Brotherhood won control of the Egyptian government. In Syria, the government brutally cracked down on opponents, reaching the point in December where Obama's administration has started to talk about the possibility of the al-Assad regime using chemical weapons, though the severity of the threat is unclear. The battles between Palestinians and Israel raged with rockets being fired into Tel Aviv and Israelis bombing targets in Gaza.


Although national attention is focused on domestic policy, it is clear that the Middle East has the capacity to command national attention at any moment and remains as explosive as ever.


Our infrastructure needs repair: Hurricane Sandy devastated the Northeast in November, leaving millions of Americans on the East Coast without power and with damaged property. Soon after the hurricane hit, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo made an important point. The infrastructure of our cities is outdated and needs to be revamped so that it can withstand current weather patterns. Speaking of the need for levees in New York, Cuomo said: "It is something we're going to have to start thinking about ... The construction of this city did not anticipate these kinds of situations."


Regardless of whether Congress takes action on the issue of climate change, in the short term cities and suburbs must do more work to curtail the kind of damage wreaked by these storms and to mitigate the costs of recovery -- building underground power lines, increasing resources for emergency responders, building state-of-the-art water systems, and constructing effective barriers to block water from flooding.


The new immigrants are a powerful political and social force: As was the case in the turn of the twentieth century when Eastern and Southern Europeans came into this county, massive waves of immigration are remaking the social fabric of the nation. Latino-Americans, Asian-Americans and other new portions of the electorate who have been coming into the country since the reform of immigration laws in 1965 are coming to represent a bigger and bigger portion of the electorate.


Not only are their numbers growing as a voting bloc, but they are more organized and active than ever before, both on election day as well as in policy making.


Soon after the election, The New York Times reported that 600 members of United We Dream, a network of younger immigrants who don't have their papers, met for three days to plan how to lobby for a bill that would enable 11 million illegal immigrants to become legal. One of the leaders, Christina Jimenez, explained: "We have an unprecedented opportunity to engage our parents, our cousins, our abuelitos in this fight." They have both parties scrambling as Democrats are working to fulfill the promises that brought these voters to their side in November, while some Republicans are desperate to dampen the influence of hardline anti-immigration activists in their party.


We need to do something about guns. The year ended with a horrific shooting at an elementary school in Connecticut. When a 20-year-old went on a rampage apparently using guns that had been legally purchased by his mother, the world watched with horror. Several prominent conservative advocates of gun rights, including former congressman and television host Joseph Scarborough as well as Sen. Joe Manchin, made statements indicating that the time has come to impose stricter controls and regulations on the purchase of weapons. "I don't know anybody in the sporting or hunting arena that goes out with an assault file," Manchin said.


Over the next few weeks, there will certainly be a big debate about what caused this shooting. People from different perspectives will highlight different issues but making it more difficult for people to get their hands on certain kinds of weapons, while not a cure-all, can only diminish the chances of this happening again.


There are many more lessons but these six stand out. After the trauma of the past week, let's hope the new year starts off with better days.



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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Julian Zelizer.






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Christmas Eve shootings leave 7 hurt









Seven people were hurt, at least five seriously, in shootings on the South and West sides late Monday.


Four of the injured were hurt in a single shooting on the Far South Side, and all four were taken to local hospitals in serious-to-critical condition, according to the Chicago Fire Department.


The shooting happened shortly before 7:30 p.m. in the 9400 block of South Justine Street in the Brainerd neighborhood on the South Side, officials said.





A male opened fire, striking four males as they walked down the sidewalk, Chicago Police Department News Affairs Officer Amina Greer said, citing preliminary information.

A 15-year-old  and a 22-year-old  were taken to Advocate Christ Hospital in Oak Lawn, a 17-year old was taken to Mount Sinai Hospital and a 19-year-old  was taken to John H. Stroger, Jr. Hospital of Cook County, police said.


The 15-year-old was shot in the abdomen, and the 17-year-old was shot in the chest, police said. The other two men were shot multiple times.


Police said the condition of each was stabilized at the hospital.


About 11:50 p.m., a 21-year-old was shot in an attempted robbery in the Gresham neighborhood on the South Side, police said.


The victim was sitting in a parked vehicle in the 8200 block of South Marshfield Avenue when two males approached on foot and announced a robbery, Greer said, citing preliminary information.


Shortly after, one or both of the assailants shot into the vehicle, striking the man in the lower abdomen, police said.


The man was taken to Little Company of Mary Hospital and later transferred to Advocate Christ, where his condition was stabilized, police said.


About 9:05 p.m., a 19-year-old man was shot in the head in the 1200 block of West Washburne Avenue in the West Side's University Village neighborhood, police said. 


The man was taken to Stroger in serious condition, News Affairs Officer Veejay Zala said.


Earlier Monday evening, a 37-year-old man was shot in the leg and back in the South Side's Gresham neighborhood, police said.


The shooting happened in the 700 block of West 81st Street about 5:50 p.m., Zala said. The man was taken to an area hospital, where his condition was stabilized.


asege@tribune.com

Twitter: @AdamSege





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Afghans seek policewoman's motive for killing U.S. contractor


KABUL (Reuters) - An Iranian-Afghan policewoman who killed a U.S. contractor at the police headquarters in Kabul may have been motivated by a personal grudge, said security officials, who were also probing possible Taliban or al Qaeda involvement.


The officials said the woman named as Narges seemed wracked with remorse over the shooting. They said she held an Iranian passport but offered no evidence that Iran may have orchestrated the attack.


She arrived at police headquarters on Monday morning and headed to a bathroom where she loaded a pistol and hid it under her long scarf, they said. She then approached the American police trainer as he was walking to a canteen and shot him in the ribs.


"After she shot the American, she pointed her pistol to other policemen who rushed to arrest her. But her weapon jammed," one top police official told Reuters. "Her prime target could have been senior officials in the compound."


It appeared to be the first time that a female member of Afghanistan's security forces had carried out such an attack.


At least 52 members of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) have been killed this year by Afghans wearing police or army uniforms, in so-called insider attacks.


Also known as green-on-blue attacks, the incidents have undermined trust between coalition and Afghan forces who are under mounting pressure to contain the Taliban insurgency before most NATO combat troops withdraw by the end of 2014.


"This was a very organized shooting," said the top police official. "There must have been bigger hands involved... At this stage, we can only say that she could have been brainwashed either by the Taliban or al Qaeda."


Virginia-based DynCorp International described the killing of its employee, police mentor Joseph Griffin, 49, as a tragedy.


"The loss of any team member is tragic but to have this happen over the holidays makes it seem all the more unfair," the company said on its website.


IRANIAN PASSPORT


There had been no indication that Narges posed any threat during her six years on the job and officials had believed she was dedicated to improving security in her troubled country.


They invested in the mother of three, sending her on a law enforcement training course in Egypt and giving her responsibility for promoting women's rights in the police force, senior police officials told Reuters.


"She is a religious person with a clean background. That's why we didn't have surveillance on her," said the top police official. "It's very difficult to have surveillance on thousands of people in the police force to see who is doing what."


Authorities were examining her phone records on Tuesday. At a press conference, Interior Ministry officials presented what they said was her Iranian passport, which identified her as Narges Rezaeimomenabad.


Interior Ministry spokesman Sediq Sediqqi said she had obtained an Afghan national identity card when she married her husband, an Afghan who works in the ministry's criminal investigation department.


"She is in a terrible condition now and crying, sighing deeply and asking herself why she did it," said the top police official. "She keeps saying 'shoot me dead'."


(Additional reporting by Mirwais Harooni and Miriam Arghandiwal; Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)



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Wall Street slips on "cliff" talks stalemate

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slipped on Monday, with the S&P 500 extending losses after its worst drop since mid-November in the prior session on continued worry legislators will be unable to reach a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff."


The benchmark S&P index <.spx> declined 0.9 percent on Friday, its biggest percentage drop since November 14, as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain any traction on Thursday night.


But the index remains up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. elections.


Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.


"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we've had the past couple of weeks - cliff talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.


"They will get together is the bigger thing and in the back of everyone's mind they believe that, it's just that you can't trade on what you don't know and we truly don't know what they are going to do."


Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 38.15 points, or 0.29 percent, to 13,152.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> lost 3.89 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,426.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> fell 7.96 points, or 0.26 percent, to 3,013.05.


Trading volumes are expected to be muted, with U.S. equity markets scheduled to close at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas holiday on Tuesday.


In addition, a number of European markets will operate on a shortened session, with other markets closed entirely.


U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.


Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, but will conduct a post-approval study to test long-term safety and efficacy. Shares were fell 3.4 percent to $24.85.


Herbalife Ltd dipped 0.7 percent to $27.05 in premarket after the company said it expects to exceed its previously announced repurchase authorization guidance and has retained Moelis & Company as its strategic advisor. The declines put the stock on track for a ninth straight decline.


Yum Brands Inc advanced 1.2 percent to $64.66 after Shanghai's food safety authority said the level of antibiotics and steroids in the company's KFC chicken was within official limits.


(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



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Seahawks roll past 49ers in noisy Seattle 42-13


SEATTLE (AP) — Red Bryant remembers the early years of his career, when the Seattle Seahawks struggled to win only four and five games in his first two seasons.


Getting a 10th win on Sunday night and a trip to the postseason was special to the Seahawks' big defensive end.


"Who has been playing better than us the last few weeks?" Bryant questioned. "This is the National Football League and you don't get any gimmies. We work hard to win. ... It's hard to win in this league."


Russell Wilson threw a career-high four touchdown passes to move into second place for most TD passes by a rookie, Marshawn Lynch scored two first-quarter TDs, and the Seahawks routed the San Francisco 49ers 42-13.


Richard Sherman returned Bryant's blocked field goal 90 yards for another touchdown as the Seahawks (10-5) jumped to a 21-0 lead. That only added to an already hyped crowd on a typically cold and rainy December night, with noise echoing off the walls and overhanging roof of CenturyLink Field that might have been heard all the way across Puget Sound.


No one appeared to care about the weather, not with the performance they were seeing on the field. And not with a ticket to the postseason guaranteed thanks to Seattle's first 10-win season since 2007.


"We knew we were capable of doing this. We had no doubt. Even in Week 1, we knew that we had the talent to do what we're doing now," said wide receiver Doug Baldwin, who had two touchdown receptions. "It took time because we're a young team. We had to mature. We had to grow together, build that chemistry, build that trust out there on the field. That's the most important thing."


Seattle surged into the playoffs on the strength of its sixth win in seven games, putting up dizzying offensive numbers that no one thought would continue against the top scoring defense in the NFL but did.


Seattle has outscored its last three opponents 150-30. The 42 points were the most allowed since Jim Harbaugh took over the 49ers, and the most San Francisco yielded since giving up 45 to Atlanta in 2009. It was the perfect way for Seattle coach Pete Carroll to snap a three-game losing streak against his rival.


"We just try to play really good football and see what happens at the end," Carroll said. "We have been scoring and doing a nice job of it and it would be great If we can keep it rolling."


Seattle will likely be the No. 5 seed in the NFC. There remains a slight chance of winning the NFC West, if the Seahawks beat St. Louis in the season finale and Arizona can upset the 49ers in San Francisco.


The Seahawks, 7-0 at home, delayed San Francisco (10-4-1) from celebrating a division title. They turned Harbaugh's 49th birthday into a miserable evening.


"If you had told me this would be the outcome I wouldn't have believed it," Sherman said. "I would say you're making this up."


Wilson hit Lynch on a 9-yard TD in the first quarter, Anthony McCoy for a 6-yarder late in the first half, and Doug Baldwin on 4 and 6 yard TDs in the second half.


Wilson has 25 TD passes, one behind Peyton Manning's NFL rookie record of 26. He finished 15 of 21 for 171 yards. His only incompletion in the first half was a deflected pass that Patrick Willis intercepted.


Wilson's counterpart, San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick, had already proven himself capable of winning on the road with victories in New Orleans and last week in New England. But Seattle is a different beast, widely regarded by players as the loudest venue in the NFL. His inexperience playing in such an environment showed. He was flustered and disorganized at the line of scrimmage, letting the noise from Seattle's fans affect him.


Kaepernick's forgettable night was capped when Sherman stepped in front of his pass intended for Randy Moss at the back of the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter for his seventh interception of the season.


Kaepernick was 19 of 36 for 244 yards with an 18-yard TD pass to Delanie Walker with 1:40 left. Frank Gore had just 28 yards on six carries after rushing for a season-high 131 when the teams met in Week 7.


"Every time you are on the field you are learning something," Kaepernick said. "We just have to take what we can from this game and move on to next week."


San Francisco played without defensive tackle Justin Smith due to an elbow injury that ended a streak of 185 starts. The 49ers lost tight end Vernon Davis in the first quarter with a concussion sustained when he was knocked off his feet on a huge hit along the sideline from Seattle safety Kam Chancellor that looked legal but drew a penalty for hitting a defenseless receiver.


San Francisco wide receiver Mario Manningham went down with a left leg injury early in the third quarter when he was tackled low by Leroy Hill and fumbled.


The loss of Smith affected the entire defense. Aldon Smith was left stuck on 19 1-2 sacks after being locked up by Seattle offensive tackle Russell Okung.


"We can't make excuses," 49ers' safety Donte Whitner said. "We understand: We lost the football game; we lost an ugly football game."


NOTES: Lynch finished with 111 yards on 26 carries, his third straight game over 100 yards vs. the 49ers. ... Seattle was 11 of 13 on third-down conversions, a season-high. ... The 49ers were held to 82 yards rushing, just the third time this season he was held under 100 yards.


___


Online: http://pro32.ap.org/poll and http://twitter.com/AP_NFL


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Most Extreme Space Discoveries of 2012






Astronomical discoveries in 2012 have reshaped what we know about the universe and pushed some instruments to the very limits of their observing power.


Scientists discovered a galaxy that harbors an enormous central black hole 17 billion times more massive than the sun. Another research group spotted a scorching-hot rocky planet in the closest star system to our own. Meanwhile, the records for most massive galaxy cluster and most distant galaxy were shattered.






Here’s a brief rundown of some of the year’s most extreme and exciting cosmic finds.


Most monstrous black hole


Observers probably don’t want to get too close to NGC 1277 or its supermassive black hole, which takes up a large portion of the galaxy itself. The central black hole is 17 billion times more massive than the sun and makes up 14 percent of its host galaxy’s mass, compared to the usual 0.1 percent.


Researchers were so flummoxed by the black hole‘s size that they took an extra year to double-check their calculations before publishing their results.


Closest exoplanet to Earth


In a surprise discovery, astronomers found a planet that is about the same size as Earthin the star system next door. The rocky planet was found in Alpha Centauri, a three-star system just 4.3 light years from us. [Alpha Centauri Planet and Stars Explained (Infographic)]


Life is very unlikely on this world. Its rocky surface may be molten, since the planet orbits just 3.6 million miles (6 million kilometers) from its sun-like star. (Earth, for comparison, circles 93 million miles, or 150 million km, from the sun).


Alpha Centauri Bb, as the planet is known, was discovered through tracking gravitational wobbles around its planet star. The wobbles in this case are very subtle, making the star move back and forth at no more than 1.1 mph (1.8 kph). The research team stated it “pushed our technique to the limit,” and some astronomers are skeptical that the planet even exists.


And just this month, a different research team detected five potential planets orbiting the star Tau Ceti, which lies only 11.9 light-years from Earth. One of the newly spotted candidate worlds may be capable of supporting life as we know it, scientists say.


Smallest alien worlds


Astronomers using NASA‘s Kepler Space Telescope discovered three tiny planets 120 light-years away from Earth. Circling the star KOI-961, the smallest of the three planets is about the size of Mars, and all are smaller than Earth. Even the star itself is tiny — just 70 percent larger than Jupiter.


“This is the most compact system of planets,” said John Johnson, of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. “It’s like you have a shrink raygun and set it to seven times smaller and zapped a planetary system.”


Smallest solar system


KOI-500 has five planets so crowded together that their gravity jostles each other profoundly during their orbits. Their “years” are only 1, 3, 4.6, 7.1 and 9.5 days long. Furthermore, the planets are tiny: just 1.3 to 2.6 times the size of Earth.


All of this action takes place in an area 150 times smaller than Earth’s orbit, astronomers said.


“At this rate, you could easily pack in 10 more planets, and they would still all fit comfortably inside the Earth’s orbit,” Darin Ragozzine, a planetary scientist at the University of Florida at Gainesville, said in a statement.


Most distant galaxy


Much like the 100-meter dash world record, the record for farthest known galaxy often changes. The newest potential record-holderis UDFj-39546284, which had taken shape when the universe was only 380 million years old. Its extreme age was discovered in 2012 using new observations from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope.


The galaxy is part of a group of seven that astronomers examined, forming perhaps the first reliable observations of galaxies that formed 400 million and 600 million years after the Big Bang created the universe 13.7 billion years ago. [Gallery: Spectacular Hubble Photos]


Oldest, most distant supernovas


In 2012, astronomers described what they think led to the oldest, most distant supernovas in the universe. Scientists believe some of these “super-luminous” supernovas come from massive stars — 100 to 250 times the mass of the sun — that explode and blast their matter into space.


Astronomers stated that inside these massive stars, gamma-ray light changes into electron pairs as well as antimatter positrons. The gamma rays usually stop the star from collapsing due to gravity, but the grip weakens as gamma rays convert to matter. It is at this point that the star implodes, sparking the explosion.


Most massive galaxy cluster


At 2,000 times more massive than the Milky Way, a large cluster of galaxies some 7 billion light-years away dwarfs just about any other collection of matter known. Astronomers say the cluster — properly known as  SPT-CLJ2344-4243and dubbed the Phoenix cluster — appears to contain thousands of galaxies of many different sizes.


Astronomers first spotted the Phoenix cluster in 2010, but didn’t realize its extent until they did follow-up observations with NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory. High-energy light pouring out of the cluster make it the most X-ray luminous one ever found, at 35 percent brighter than the last record-holder found.


Biggest map of the universe


Courtesy of a mega map, astronomers are a step closer to understanding how the universe came to be. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey III released a map that charts more than 1 million galaxies in a total volume of 70 billion cubic light-years.


The map could help astronomers better understand the mysterious dark matter and dark energy that appears to make up most of the universe, researchers said.


Deepest view of the universe


The Hubble Space Telescope is peering back further and further in time. The famous orbiting observatory captured light that emanated 13.2 billion years ago, when the universe was just 500 million years old or so.


Hubble’s picture, which is called the eXtreme Deep Field, shows galaxies and starlight accumulated over 10 years in a small bit of sky; this is the best method we have to see objects so far away. The photo is a successor to Hubble’s “Ultra Deep Field”, which the telescope took in 2003 and 2004. [Video: Hubble's eXtreme Deep Field]


Most magnetic star


There’s a star 20,000 light-years from Earth with a real magnetic personality. NGC 1624-2, which is about 35 times as massive as our sun, was spotted in the constellation Perseus. With a magnetic field 20,000 times stronger than the sun’s— and 10 times more powerful than that of any known star — NGC 1624-2 drags a blanket of trapped charged particles around it.


“Magnetic fields of this strength are extremely rare; they are only known to exist in a few other stars of much lower mass,” study lead author Gregg Wade, an astronomer at the Royal Military College of Canada, told SPACE.com in a September interview. “To find such a strong field is very lucky.”


X-ray blast in the universe’s youth


A jet of X-rays emanating from quasar GB 1428 — a galaxy that has a huge black hole in its center — was found about 12.4 billion light-years from Earth. The radiation band is estimated at about twice the diameter of the Milky Way.


With the previous record-holder at 12.2 billion light-years away, astronomers said they are getting more information on how black holes behaved in the universe’s early days.


Biggest core found in a ginormous galaxy


Lurking in a galaxy about 10 times the width of the Milky Way lies a large, diverse galactic core that doesn’t seem to have a black hole associated with it.


The wispy core of A2261-BCG, which is about 10,000 light-years across, puzzles astronomers because supermassive black holes are expected to be at the heart of most galaxies. Hubble Space Telescope observations suggest the core might have been constructed when two galaxies merged.


Follow Elizabeth Howell @howellspace, or SPACE.com @Spacedotcom. We’re also on Facebook and Google+.


Copyright 2012 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Shootings: Suicide risk gives clues




A sign near a cemetery of a victim in the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.




STORY HIGHLIGHTS


  • Daniel Flannery: Studies show there is no distinct profile of school shooters

  • Flannery: We can take lessons from what we know about risk for suicide

  • He says we can do better to assess a person's risk for violent action toward others

  • Flannery: Communities and schools should pay more attention to kids' mental health




Editor's note: Daniel J. Flannery is the Dr. Semi J. and Ruth Begun professor and director of the Begun Center for Violence Prevention, Research and Education at the Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences at Case Western Reserve University.


(CNN) -- It is hard not to feel a sense of despair, loss and anxiety over the shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. We want answers. We may not know for a very long time, if ever, what really motivated the shooter.


Previous studies of school shooters show us that some common mental health symptoms characterize many of the perpetrators, including poor anger management ability, narcissism, low self-esteem and lack of empathy. However, there are still many more differences across shooters than similarities, so to date there is no distinct profile of school shooters.


What can we do, aside from the psychological autopsying of recent incidents, to try and prevent more homicide school shootings? There is no simple answer. But we can take some lessons from what we know about risk for suicide.



Daniel J. Flannery

Daniel J. Flannery



For many years, we have done a pretty good job of getting people to take threats of suicide seriously. If a young person walks into a counselor's office and says something like, "I think I'm going to kill myself," that counselor has been professionally trained and socialized to not underestimate the threat of self-injury.


Certainly, not every young adult who says such a thing goes on to commit suicide. Evidence shows that many of them have at least thought about hurting or killing themselves at some point, but few actually make a real attempt and fewer still carry it out.








Developing a good model for assessing the risk of suicide can provide a framework for how to assess the seriousness of threats to commit acts of violence toward others.


For example, one of the best predictors of suicide is previous suicide attempts. We try to determine whether a person has access to lethal methods of self-harm (drugs, firearms) and how detailed are the plans to carry out the act. We look for signs of anger and whether the person has experienced a recent crisis or loss. We try to figure out if a person's sense of rejection or disenfranchisement leads to a sense of hopelessness about the future, and a conviction that suicide is the only way out of a desperate situation. Moreover, if a person knows someone close who has committed suicide, we have to be vigilant since there tends to be an increase (clustering) of suicides among friends or acquaintances.


Each of these signposts can help us do a better job of assessing a person's risk for carrying out acts of violence toward others like in the school shootings.


We can look for any history of violence -- whether the person has written about or told others of his or her intent. We can try to find out whether the person has access to firearms or has thought out a plan to carry out an attack. We can try to evaluate levels of anger, feelings of rejection, or expressions of hopelessness about the future.


Most adolescent school shooters have said something to peers prior to taking any action, but not always to the direct target of an attack, and rarely to an adult. (In contrast, in rampage shootings carried out by adults, we don't have as much information and they don't usually give verbal warnings or threats beforehand.)


Ideally, assessing the risk would be carried out using a validated set of reliable indicators, with detailed semi-structured interviews performed by trained mental health professionals. In schools, social workers, counselors or school psychologists can screen young people for risk of potential violence perpetration and refer them to other mental health professionals who could do a more thorough assessment if necessary. Of course, adequate screenings depend largely on adequate time, resources and staff training.


Not every young person who makes a threat to hurt others will end up committing an act of violence toward others, and very few will ever commit a multiple mass shooting. But just as we take threats of suicide seriously, we should pay equal attention to those who say they might harm others.


We have to do all we can to make sure our children are safe, and that they all come home at the end of the school day. We can take steps as a community to pay attention to mental health and violence as it occurs every day, not just when horrible acts of great magnitude occur.


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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Daniel J. Flannery.






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Bears' playoff hopes alive, but help from Packers now required

Chicago Tribune sports columnist David Haugh and Chicago Tribune sports reporter Fred Mitchell discuss the Bears win against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. (Posted on: Dec. 24, 2012)









GLENDALE, Ariz. — They're alive.


Only because they faced an offense far more disjointed than their own were the Bears able to withstand another lethargic start. Jump-started by two defensive touchdowns — their first since Week 9 — the Bears trounced the woeful Cardinals on Sunday at University of Phoenix Stadium.


The 28-13 victory improved the Bears to 9-6 and kept them in the NFC playoff race. They need to win the regular-season finale against the Lions in Detroit on Sunday and have the Packers defeat the Vikings at the Metrodome to claim a wild-card spot. The Bears have won eight of their last nine vs. the Lions, who will look to be a spoiler while trying to get wide receiver Calvin Johnson 2,000 yards on the season. He needs 108.








The Packers will be motivated against the Vikings with a first-round bye and the No. 2 seed in the NFC on the line.


"I've always been a big Packers fan," Bears coach Lovie Smith said. "It's not hard at all for me. We have a tough division, but as we said this week, we can't do much about that. All we can do is get a win against Detroit."


Reserve cornerback Zack Bowman, playing against the Cardinals' heavy package, recovered a fumble by Beanie Wells for the first score of the game and Charles Tillman returned an interception 10 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter, the Bears' ninth defensive touchdown of the season, leaving them one behind the 1998 Seahawks for the most in NFL history.


Those plotting an end to the Smith era have to hold on now. Most consider it unlikely the Bears will have a housecleaning project under general manager Phil Emery if the club reaches the playoffs. Emery has spoken publicly only once since the season began, during the off week.


But the Bears are not going to go anywhere in the postseason if the offense doesn't find a level of consistency. Running back Matt Forte once again is nursing a right ankle injury as he was knocked out of the game in the third quarter after carrying 12 times for 88 yards, including a 4-yard touchdown. Wearing a walking boot afterward, he declared he would play against the Lions, but it is too early to know.


"With running lanes like that, you can make moves in the open field and get extra yards," Forte said. "It is unfortunate I had to leave the game, but I felt like we were really starting to roll in the running game."


Quarterback Jay Cutler missed on 10 of his first 11 passes, yet the Bears took a 14-3 lead while he was misfiring. Cutler put together a nice drive at the end of the second quarter, firing an 11-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall, but that was about it for rhythm in the passing game. He finished 12 of 26 for 146 yards, but he didn't turn the ball over.


"It wasn't pretty," Cutler said. "I thought the offensive line did a great job. I missed a lot of throws."


Cardinals quarterback Ryan Lindley was benched for Brian Hoyer after the Tillman interception and the Cardinals struggled moving the ball at all, converting only three of 15 third downs. Julius Peppers had a season-high three sacks to give him 111/2, his most in three seasons with the Bears. The biggest play for the Cardinals was Justin Bethel's 82-yard return of a blocked Olindo Mare field-goal attempt.


So, the Bears, thanks in part to the Ravens' victory against the Giants on Sunday, have a chance as they prepare for the Lions. No one knew how they would respond after losing five of their previous six games. Their mantra has been that the playoffs already have started. That is why it wasn't surprising to hear the hollering through the cinder-block walls of the locker room afterward.


"We feel like we have new life," said cornerback Tim Jennings, who returned after missing two games with a dislocated right shoulder. "We forgot what it felt like to be in the win column."


The last time the Bears won in Arizona during the regular season, then-Cardinals coach Denny Green said to "crown their ass!" No one is going to crown these Bears, but they can't be written off either.


"We need some help," Marshall said. "But the only thing we can control is going out there and playing against the Lions."


bmbiggs@tribune.com


Twitter @BradBiggs





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Afghan policewoman kills coalition contractor in Kabul: NATO


KABUL (Reuters) - An Afghan woman wearing a police uniform shot dead on Monday a civilian contractor working for Western forces in the police chief's compound in Kabul, NATO said.


The incident is likely to raise troubling questions about the direction of an unpopular war.


It appeared to be the first time that a woman member of Afghanistan's security forces carried out such an attack.


There were conflicting reports about the victim.


A spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said a U.S. police adviser was killed by an Afghan policewoman. Then ISAF said in a statement only that it was a "contracted civilian employee" who was killed.


Mohammad Zahir, head of the police criminal investigation department, described the incident as an "insider attack" in which Afghan forces turn their weapons on Western troops they are supposed to be working with. He initially said the victim was a U.S. soldier.


After more than 10 years of war, militants are capable of striking Western targets in the heart of the capital, and foreign forces worry that Afghan police and military forces they are supposed to work with can suddenly turn on them.


The policewoman approached her victim as he was walking in the heavily guarded police chief's compound in a bustling area of Kabul. She then drew a pistol and shot him once, a senior police official told Reuters.


The police complex is close to the Interior Ministry where in February, two American officers were shot dead at close range at a time anger gripped the country over the burning of copies of the Muslim holy book at a NATO base.


"She is now under interrogation. She is crying and saying 'what have I done'," said the official, of the police officer who worked in a section of the Interior Ministry responsible for gender awareness issues.


TIPS FOR TROOPS


The insider incidents, also known as green-on-blue attacks, have undermined trust between coalition and Afghan forces who are under mounting pressure to contain the Taliban insurgency before most NATO combat troops withdraw by the end of 2014.


Security responsibilities in a country plagued by conflict for decades will be handed to Afghan security forces.


Many Afghans fear a civil war like one dominated by warlords after the withdrawal of Soviet occupying forces in 1989 could erupt again, or the Taliban will make another push to seize power if they reject a nascent peace process.


At least 52 members of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force have been killed this year by Afghans wearing police or army uniforms.


Insider attacks now account for one in every five combat deaths suffered by NATO-led forces in Afghanistan, and 16 percent of all U.S. combat casualties, according to 2012 data.


Hoping to stop the increase in the attacks, Afghan Defense Ministry officials have given their troops tips in foreign culture.


They are told not to be offended by a hearty pat on the back or an American soldier asking after your wife's health.


NATO attributes only about a quarter of the attacks to the Taliban, saying the rest are caused by personal grievances and misunderstandings. Last year, there were 35 deaths in such attacks.


Afghan forces are vulnerable to "insider attacks" of their own. In Jawzjan province in the north, a police commander shot and killed five comrades overnight, the Interior Ministry said.


Last year, he defected from the Taliban, said the ministry.


Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement that the commander had rejoined the Taliban. That could not be confirmed.


(Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Robert Birsel)



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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.


A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.


Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.


"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.


"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.


If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.


For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.


Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.


IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY


Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.


If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.


"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.


"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."


Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.


Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.


"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.


"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."


Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.


The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.


Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.


U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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